di Mauro, Filippo; Fornari, Fabio; Mannucci, Dario - European Central Bank - 2011
definition of 'granular shock' given in Gabaix, 2010) are key to improve the predictability of aggregate business cycle … financial information leads to a significant improvement in forecasting business cycle developments in four economic areas, at … various horizons. Importantly, not only domestic firms but also foreign firms improve business cycle predictability for a …