Martínez-Martín, Jaime; Rusticelli, Elena - 2020
la literatura teórica. ; This paper builds an innovative composite world trade cycle index (WTI) by means of a dynamic … factor model to perform short-term forecasts of world trade growth of both goods and (usually neglected) services. The … useful tool for tracking and forecasting world trade in real time; ii) the model is able to infer global trade cycles very …