Isengildina, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Good, Darrel L. - NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, … - 2003
The USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) price forecasts are published in the form of an … ignored. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the accuracy of WASDE price forecasts using methodology suitable for testing … evaluation (accuracy-informativeness tradeoff model). The results of the traditional analysis indicate overconfidence of WASDE …