This paper proposes an original and uni ed toolbox to evaluate nancial crisis Early Warning Systems (EWS). It presents four main advantages. First, it is a model free method which can be used to asses the forecasts issued from di erent EWS (probit, logit, markov switching models, or combinations...

This paper aims at explaining differences in education between foster-children and the biological children of their new household by differences in return to education as suggested by the human capital investment model. Defining this return by the amount of the old-age support the care-givers...

Uncertainty is a crucial issue for producers who must make input decisions without knowing prices and without perfect knowledge of realized output. In this context, price expectations strongly determine the production choices and market prices that result from market-clearing conditions. This...

Urbanization and poverty have a two-way relationship. Using fixed-effects regression andpanel data from household surveys, we estimate the effect of urbanization on welfare andpoverty of rural households in Vietnam. We find that urbanization tends to increaselandlessness of rural households and...

Recently, Asian and Latin American countries have been involved in a series of negotiations to liberalize trade and investment flows. This paper analyzes the potential impact of a Free Trade Agreement between countries of both regions, applying a world dynamic general equilibrium model (MIRAGE)....

This short paper argues that rationally motivated coordination between agents is an important ingredient to understand the current economic crisis. We argue that changes in parameters that model the structure of a macro-economy or financial markets are not exogenous but arise as agents adopt...

The paper argues that the world economy might experiment inflationary pressures (or restrictive policies aimed at fighting them) when the economic depression triggered by the financial crisis is stabilized. The primary cause is that bad money has been (endogenously) delivered which did not lead...

Contrasting with the 1929 great crisis, authorities intervened forcefully in 2008 to stop the disintegration of the financial system. Governments and central banks then sought to revise the prudential regulation in depth. It would be optimistic, however, to believe that prudential measures,...