The paper examines the evolution of public sector debt levels and structures in 12 emerging market countries around the time of financial crises. In particular, it focuses on whether the debt situation of sovereign borrowers became more vulnerable in the aftermath of crises. The principal...

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Algerian economy continues to benefit from abundant and increasing hydrocarbon revenues. Real GDP growth is expected to continue at about 5 percent in 2005, led by increased output in the hydrocarbon sector and sustained activity in the...

Prudent macroeconomic policies helped Turkey to achieve economic growth under the Stand-By Arrangement. Executive Directors welcomed this development and stressed the need to widen the account deficit. They emphasized the need of a strong budget, powerful monetary and fiscal policies, and...

The key policy challenge for Turkey in the years ahead will be to enhance and consolidate the advances made since the nation’s 2000-01 economic crisis. Higher growth could reduce unemployment and raise living standards toward European Union levels. This paper reviews Turkey’s...

The 2007 Article IV Consultation explains Romania’s fiscal and income policies and financial sector issues. The economic outlook is clouded by a widening current account imbalance and the risk of a resurgence of inflation pressures, as a result of strong domestic demand that is being...

We use novel spatial econometrics techniques to explore spillovers in the sovereign bond market for 24 emerging economies during 1995-2010. The paper extends the previous literature focusing on spillover effects from advanced to emerging economies by analyzing transmission of shocks across...

This paper seeks to draw lessons from the IMF’s experience in handling financial crises around the globe over the past ten years that are relevant to the challenges faced by countries in Latin America, especially in the wake of the recent crisis in Argentina. Experience suggests that...

We construct a financial vulnerability indicator that is consistent with the theoretical literature on determinants of defaults. It is based on the amount of new foreign financing that is needed to avoid a default or an import adjustment, expressed as a proportion of the country's sources of...

This paper contains an empirical investigation of the set of economic and political conditions that are associated with a likely occurrence of a sovereign debt crisis. We use a new statistical approach (Binary Recursive Tree) that allows us to derive a collection of "rules of thumb" that help...