Organic farmers, wholesalers, and retailers need price forecasts to improve their decision-making practices. This paper presents a methodology and protocol to select the best performing method from several time and frequency domain candidates. Weekly farmgate prices for organic fresh produce are...

Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG's) and Error Correction Models (ECM's) are employed to analyze questions of price discovery between spatially separated commodity markets and the transportation market linking them together. Results from our analysis suggest that these markets are highly...

The choice of deflators of commodity prices can change the time-series properties of the original series. This is a specific application of the general phenomenon that various kinds of data transformations can create spurious cycles that did not exist in the original data. Different empirical...

A set of consumer-level characteristic demand models were estimated to determine the level of brand equity for pork and beef meat cuts. Results indicate that brand premiums and discounts vary by private, national, and store brands; and brand equity varies across meat cuts carrying the same brand...

In traditional tests of forecast rationality, price forecasts are usually differenced to obtain stationarity. However, this data transformation may ignore important long-run information contained in forecasted price levels. Here, the concept of forecast consistency is paired with rationality...

Econometric models of commodity prices have been estimated for more than 80 years, but both structural and time series models require ad hoc assumptions to capture all the features of commodity price series. Commodities can be broadly divided into two categories: storable and non-storable. The...

The USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) price forecasts are published in the form of an interval, but typically analyzed as point estimates. Thus, all information about uncertainty imbedded in the forecast is ignored. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the accuracy...