We propose a modeling framework which allows for creating probability predictions on a future market crash in the medium term, like sometime in the next five days. Our framework draws upon noticeable similarities between stock returns around a financial market crash and seismic activity around...

This survey reviews the literature on the political economy of financial structure, broadly defined to include the size of capital markets and banking systems as well as the distribution of access to external finance across firms.The theoretical literature on the institutional basis for...

This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on links between domestic financial development and economic growth. It starts with the pioneers in this field and then classifies two main schools favouring liberal financial regimes. First McKinnon and Shaw advocated financial...

We use project-level information for the largest regional economic development program in German history to study whether government subsidies to firms affect quantity and quality of bank lending. We combine recipient firms under the Improvement of Regional Economic Structures program (GRW) with...

Can a wealth shift to emerging countries explain instability in developed countries? Investors exposed to political risk seek safety in countries with better property right protection. This induces private intermediaries to offer safety via inexpensive demandable debt, and increase lending into...

In the analysis of the credit crisis of 2007-2010 a clear distinction should be made between (i) the initial shock; (ii) the propagation and amplification of the initial shock to the systemic crisis of the financial markets; and (iii) the transmission of the credit crisis to the real economic...

We investigate the information content of stock correlation based network measures for systemic risk rankings, such as SIFIRank (based on Google's PageRank). Using European banking data, we first show that SIFIRank is empirically equivalent to a ranking based on average pairwise stock...