This paper develops a model of private debt financing under inefficient financial intermediation. It suggests a mechanism that can generate the following sequence of events observed in the recent Asian crisis: A period of relatively low capital flow despite a steady improvement in economic...

This study finds that equity returns in the banking sector in the wake of the Great Recession and the European sovereign debt crisis have been driven mainly by weak growth prospects and heightened sovereign risk and to a lesser extent, by deteriorating funding conditions and investor sentiment....

This paper, using T-GARCH models, finds that the United States has been the major source of price and volatility spillovers to stock markets in the Asian region during three different periods in the last decade: the pre-Long Term Capital Management crisis period, the ""tech bubble"" period, and...

This paper explores how the global turmoil affected the risk of banks operating in Chile, and provides evidence that could help strengthen work on vulnerability indicators and off-site supervision. The analysis is based on the study of default risk codependence, or CoRisk, between Chilean banks...

We measure bank vulnerability in emerging markets using the distance-to-default, a risk-neutral indicator based on Merton''s (1974) structural model of credit risk. The indicator is estimated using equity prices and balance-sheet data for 38 banks in 14 emerging market countries. Results show it...

Systemic risk remains a major concern to policymakers since widespread defaults in the corporate and financial sectors could pose substantial costs to society. Forward-looking measures and/or indicators of systemic default risk are thus needed to identify potential buildups of vulnerability in...

Policy makers have expressed interest in fostering the development of local foreign exchange derivatives markets with a view to reducing risks arising from currency mismatches between assets and liabilities in the corporate sector. This paper assesses foreign exchange exposure in the corporate...

This study uses bivariate extremal dependence measures, based on the number of equity return co-exceedances in two markets, to quantify both negative and positive equity returns contagion in mature and emerging equity markets during the past decade. The results indicate (a) higher contagion for...

This paper draws a link between international capital flows and the real options approach to investment by extending a model of real estate investment. It explains gradual investment, investment booms, and investment during recessions and emphasizes sunk costs, uncertainty, and the value of...