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We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation. We examine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473427
In the first quarter of 1995 Mexico found itself in the grip of an intense financial panic. Foreign investors fled Mexico despite very high interest rates on Mexican securities, an undervalued currency, and financial indicators that pointed to long-term solvency. The fundamental conditions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473740
I provide a novel theory to account for these phenomena and use it to shed light on the data. I break new ground … suspension of convertibility exceeds some agent-specific threshold. The implications of the theory are highlighted in an … analytically tractable example. The theory is then used as a guide to examine and interpret the data, using bi-hourly observations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334473
Millions of households in developing countries receive financial support from family members working overseas. How do migrant earnings affect origin-household investments? This paper examines Philippine households' responses to overseas members' economic shocks. Overseas Filipinos work in dozens...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466340
A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Those emerging economies that avoided leverage booms during the 2000s also were most likely to avoid the worst effects of the twenty-first century's first global...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461405
How does income from international migrant labor affect the long-run development of migrant-origin areas? We leverage the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis to identify exogenous changes in international migrant income across regions of the Philippines, derived from spatial variation in exposure to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013172161
The carry trade is the investment strategy of going long in high-yield target currencies and short in low-yield funding currencies. Recently, this naive trade has seen very high returns for long periods, followed by large crash losses after large depreciations of the target currencies. Based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463131
This paper analyzes the co-movement of the exchange rates and the stock prices from the viewpoint of contagion among the eight countries in the region during the period of Asian currency crisis, 1997-1999. Ito and Hashimoto (2002; NBER working paper) proposed a new definition of high-frequency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468245
The large asset price jumps that took place during 2008 and 2009 disrupted volatility derivatives markets and caused the single-name variance swap market to dry up completely. This paper defines and analyzes a simple variance swap, a relative of the variance swap that in several respects has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461773
The analysis focuses on the government budget constraint and the resolution of inconsistent implications of different policy instruments under that constraint. We show how, under floating exchange rates, external shocks or internal structural reforms may cause jumps in inflation and the exchange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476939