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In this paper we characterize empirically the comovements of macro variables typically observed in middle income countries, as well as the boom-bust cycle' that has been observed during the last two decades. We find that many countries that have liberalized their financial markets, have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469490
In this paper we compare various characteristics of the cross-country transmission of shocks in the financial markets of both advanced and emerging countries during two periods of globalization -- the pre-World War I classical gold standard era, 1880-1914, and the post-Bretton Woods era,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469694
We use a network model of credit risk to measure market expectations of the potential spillovers from a sovereign default. Specifically, we develop an empirical model, based on the recent theoretical literature on contagion in financial networks, and estimate it with data on sovereign credit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458098
I provide a novel theory to account for these phenomena and use it to shed light on the data. I break new ground … suspension of convertibility exceeds some agent-specific threshold. The implications of the theory are highlighted in an … analytically tractable example. The theory is then used as a guide to examine and interpret the data, using bi-hourly observations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334473
Banking reforms--that reduced interest rates--boosted college enrollment rates among able students from middle class families. We define "able" students as those with learning aptitude scores in the top two-thirds of the U.S. population. We define "middle class" as families in which both parents...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459281
While its recent history of civil war, chronic poverty and corrupt governance would cause many to dismiss Sierra Leone as a hopeless case, the country's economic and political performance over the last decade has defied expectations. We examine how several factors--including the legacy of war,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460292
Explanations of economic growth and prosperity commonly identify a unique causal effect, e.g., institutions, culture, human capital, geography. In this paper we provide instead a theoretical modeling of the interaction between culture and institutions and their effects on economic activity. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455306
collapse of output in East Asia following the 1997 crisis, we find that the unexpected (forecast error) collapse of output in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470419
in Asia in the 2000s. These developments may be a symptom of an emerging new global financial architecture, which is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465374
To update a famous old statistic: a political leader in a developing country is almost twice as likely to lose office in the 6 months following a currency crash as otherwise. This difference, which is highly significant statistically, holds regardless whether the devaluation takes place in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467146