One word summarizes the current outlook for the U.S. economy. That word is confusion. First, we review the recent behavior of the U.S. economy. Ten years of economic expansion without a recession had led some to believe that we could have continual expansion without a recession. The year 2000...

The global economy is also faltering. Global economic growth in 2001 was the slowest of any year since 1993, and only a modest rebound is forecast for 2002. The combination of sluggish world growth and a strong dollar should continue to constrain farm exports in 2002.Three concerns are important...