This paper explores the impact of the recent soar in world commodity prices on economic activity and household welfare in Tanzania, and the possible policy responses to that shock. The analysis is based on a single country computable general equilibrium model that includes considerable factor...

This paper explores the impact of the recent soar in world commodity prices on economic activity and household welfare in Tanzania, and the possible policy responses to that shock. The analysis is based on a single country computable general equilibrium model that includes considerable factor...

The problem of simultaneously identifying and controlling a time-varying, perfectly-observed linear system is posed. The parameters are assumed to obey a Markov structure and are estimated with a Kalman filter. The problem can be solved conceptually by dynamic programming, but even with a...

Studies of risk and its consequences tend to focus on one risk factor, such as a drought or an economic crisis. Yet 2003 household surveys in rural Kilimanjaro and Ruvuma, two cash-crop-growing regions in Tanzania that experienced a precipitous coffee price decline around the turn of the...

The problem of simultaneously identifying and controlling a time-varying, perfectly-observed linear system is posed. The parameters are assumed to obey a Markov structure and are estimated with a Kalman filter. The problem can be solved conceptually by dynamic programming, but even with a...