This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Algerian economy continues to benefit from abundant and increasing hydrocarbon revenues. Real GDP growth is expected to continue at about 5 percent in 2005, led by increased output in the hydrocarbon sector and sustained activity in the...

The 2007 Article IV Consultation explains Romania’s fiscal and income policies and financial sector issues. The economic outlook is clouded by a widening current account imbalance and the risk of a resurgence of inflation pressures, as a result of strong domestic demand that is being...

We construct a financial vulnerability indicator that is consistent with the theoretical literature on determinants of defaults. It is based on the amount of new foreign financing that is needed to avoid a default or an import adjustment, expressed as a proportion of the country's sources of...

Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private...

The 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the near-term outlook for Belgium is challenging, with real GDP expected to drop by about 3 percent in 2009 and a gradual recovery projected for 2010. The unemployment rate will continue to rise in 2010, and inflation pressures are expected to...

This 2009 Article IV Consultation focuses on euro area policies. The euro area remains in recession, with signs of improvement yet to evolve into a recovery. The large drop in financial wealth, an associated increase in private savings, tight financing conditions, and the adjustment of global...

Paraguay’s Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria are examined. The main challenge is to consolidate the macroeconomic gains achieved thus far and deepen structural reform. A stable macroeconomic environment will be the key for creating...

Raising growth on a sustainable basis and addressing widespread poverty are the main challenges for Paraguay. The macroeconomic program for 2007 aims at raising growth and reducing inflation. IMF staff recommends that the next Article IV Consultation continues within the 24-month cycle, and...

This staff report on United Kingdom’s (UK) 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights economic policies and development. The UK economy grew by about ¼ percent in 2012. Net trade reduced growth by 0.6 percentage points of GDP, the biggest drag since 2005, and well above staff projections....

This paper discusses the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria and Rephasing of the Program. The 2007 fiscal deficit target increased modestly to 1 percent of GDP. Taxes were cut and budget...