This paper uses a simulation model to evaluate the effects of river flooding events occurring within Germany on regional' banks. Under a 1.5℃ increase in temperature, the impact is overall rather small, even accounting for the devaluation of loans exposed to floods. However, under a 3℃...

Financial shocks represent a major driver of fluctuations in tail risk, defined as the 5th percentile of the forecast distributions of output and inflation. Since the variance and the asymmetry of the forecast distributions are largely driven by the left tail, financial shocks turn out to play a...