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Using quarterly worker flow data of U.S. establishments, we find that an unexpected increase in uncertainty reduces hirings and quits, while it raises layoffs. This finding suggests that the real option effect of uncertainty is less important for employment decisions. Hence plants do not freeze...
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We identify the main shock driving fluctuations in long‐horizon productivity expectations, consistent with theories of … TFP news. The identified shock induces strong comovement patterns in output, consumption, investment, employment, and … news shock. The model also matches the empirical patterns of vacancies, labor force participation, hours, and job …
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