Biodiesel as a Substitute for Petroleum Diesel in a Stochastic Environment

The objective of the research presented in this paper is the development of a stochastic adoption threshold. The option pricing Approach for modeling investment under uncertainty is extended for the case of comparing two stochastic input prices associated with inputs that are perfect substitutes in a production process. Based on this methodology, a threshold decision rule influenced by the drift and volatility of these two input prices is developed. Theoretical results establish an empirical link for measuring the tradeoff of a relatively more expensive input (biodiesel)with lower price drift and volatility compared with a lower but more volatile priced input (petroleum diesel). Key Words: option pricing, production, renewable fuels, technology adoption under uncertainty