Crisis, Debt, and Default : The Effects of Time Preference, Information, and Coordination

Philip Ernstberger analyses in his three essays different topics of financial pathologies. Thereby, changes in fundamentals as well as information are considered as the driving force for the behavior of speculators and investors. The first essay deals with currency crises, in which the central bank, through setting the interest rate, steers the economy and defends against speculators. The second essay examines the effects of a rating and possible biases on the coordination of investors and the pricing of debt. In the third essay the author uses forecasts of default probabilities and implied market default probabilities to infer the weighing of information by investors. Contents • The Dynamics of Currency Crises • The Mispricing of Debt - Influences of Ratings on Coordination • Probability of Default and Precision of Information Target Groups • Teachers and students of international macroeconomics and finance as well as monetary economics • Executives and consultants in the field of corporate credit ratings About the Author Dr. Philip Ernstberger is currently working as a senior consultant in the field of risk modeling, concentrating on stress testing and operational risk methodologies, as well as rating model development and validation.