The Dynamics of Earnings in Chile

This paper provides an empirical analysis of individual earnings using data from the Encuesta Suplementaria de Ingresos. We find that the predictable component of income is hump-shaped over the life-cycle, and that there are strong education effects. The unpredictable component of income can be described by a very persistent permanent shock and a transitory shock. Our estimates are built from a panel of cohorts, so we use US data from the PSID to provide a magnitude for the underestimation of the estimated variances. Surprisingly, we find that the variance of the permanent shock is almost 4 times smaller in Chile than in the US, a result, perhaps, of the relative rigidity of the Chilean labor market