The impact of Covid-19 and of the earlier crisis on firms' innovation and growth : a comparative analysis

Using the results of the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (2009 to 2020 editions), this paper aims to assess the effect of Covid-19 pandemic on the probabilities of firm to innovate and grow and to compare their likelihood with that of the previous downturn. To control for a possible endogeneity bias as part of innovation decisions a Recursive Bivariate Probit Model is used. Results show that the probabilities of firms to innovate and grow are lower in 2020 (Covid-19 crisis) than in 2009 (financial crisis). The economic performance of innovative firms was also affected by the pandemic, but considerably less than the performance of non-innovative ones. Changes in the innovation patterns are also observed. Possible implications for decision-makers are derived.