What is the Most Prominent Reserve Indicator that Forewarns Currency Crises?

In this study, the predictability powers of three indicators of international reserve adequacy, namely external short-term debt to total reserves, broad money to total reserves, and reserves in months of imports on currency crisis are analysed. We show that while each indicator has potential in predicting the probability of crisis, the ratio of broad money to total reserves is a better and a more robust indicator. While it is not possible to regulate the other two indicators, central banks have significant power on the ratio of broad money to total reserves and hence do have the capability of monitoring and possibly preventing currency crises with this power